Can Digital Technology Improve the Resilience of Grain Production: Causal Inference Based on Dual Machine Learning
摘要
[Objective]Leveraging digital technology to enhance grain production resilience is pivotal for ensuring food security and constructing a modernized agricultural support system. The purposes of this study are to: (1) Define the connotation of grain production resilience and construct an evaluation index system across three dimensions: risk resistance, regulatory adaptability, and transformative innovation; (2) Identify the impact and mechanisms of digital technology as a new production factor on grain production resilience; (3) Reveal how digital technology influences resilience through the reorganization of "People-Land-Service" factors; (4) Analyze the heterogeneity of these effects across diverse geographical environments and economic endowments.[Methods]Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2011 to 2023, a rigorous empirical analysis was conducted. First, the entropy method was employed to measure the levels of digital technology and grain production resilience. Second, a dual machine learning model, utilizing support vector machine as base learners with 5-fold cross-validation and double residualization, was constructed for causal inference to address the "curse of dimensionality" and specification biases inherent in traditional linear models. To ensure robustness, an instrumental variable approach was applied, using the product of the number of fixed-line telephones in 1984 and the national internet users of the previous year. Third, a mediation effect model was introduced to test three pathways: non-farm labor transfer, large-scale land management, and agricultural productive services.[Results and Discussions]Mechanism analysis indicated: (1) In the "People" dimension, digital technology promoted non-farm labor transfer by reducing information search costs, thereby inducing capital reflux to alleviate financial constraints; (2) In the "Land" dimension, digital platforms lowered transaction costs for land transfer, facilitating contiguous large