[Territorial Spatial Conflicts and Their Influencing Factors in the Wujiang River Basin， Guizhou Province： A Multi-Scenario Simulation Approach].
摘要
Studying territorial spatial conflicts and their influencing factors is crucial for optimizing spatial layout and promoting sustainable and high-quality development. Taking the Wujiang River Basin in Guizhou Province as the study area， this research constructs a "map analysis-conflict assessment-driving mechanism exploration-scenario simulation" framework based on land use and multi-source data from 2008 to 2023. The study employs geospatial mapping and landscape ecological risk assessment to establish a territorial spatial conflict evaluation system； utilizes the optimal parameter-based Geodetector to reveal natural， socioeconomic， and transportation driving mechanisms； and applies the PLUS model to simulate conflict patterns under ecological protection， farmland conservation， and economic development scenarios for 2033. The results indicate： ① The overall territorial spatial conflict index in the basin showed an upward trend， with the proportions of high-intensity and strong conflict areas increasing by 0.66% and 0.33%， respectively. Spatially， conflicts exhibited a "core-periphery" hierarchical pattern： high-intensity conflicts concentrated in flat， densely populated urban centers； moderate conflicts occurred in urban peripheries and riverine zones； and low-conflict areas were located in ecologically intact regions with rugged terrain and minimal human disturbance. ② The influencing factors revealed that territorial spatial conflict patterns were synergistically driven by natural environments， socioeconomic factors， and transportation accessibility. Land use intensity and nighttime light index were dominant drivers， with interaction effects between factors surpassing individual impacts. ③ Multi-scenario simulations demonstrated that the ecological protection scenario yielded the lowest conflict index， while economic development exacerbated conflicts due to urban expansion encroaching on ecological spaces. The study proposes a coordinated governance strategy integ