[Spatiotemporal Dynamics， Decoupling Analysis， and Driving Mechanisms of Carbon Emissions from China's Livestock Sector].
摘要
Against the backdrop of global climate change， the livestock sector， as a major source of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions， plays a critical role in shaping carbon reduction pathways and regulatory mechanisms. Based on slaughter and inventory data of major livestock and poultry species across 31 provinces （autonomous regions and municipalities） in China from 2001 to 2022， carbon emissions were estimated using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） emission coefficient method. Kernel density estimation， the Tapio decoupling model， and the logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） decomposition method were employed to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal patterns， economic decoupling status， and driving mechanisms of livestock carbon emissions. The results show that： ① Total emissions exhibited a fluctuating trend of "increase-decline-rebound，" with spatial patterns characterized by "lower in the east and higher in the west，" and high-emission concentration in central and southwestern regions， while emission intensity remained high in the northwestern pastoral areas. ② Strong decoupling occurred only from 2006 to 2010， with most other periods showing weak decoupling， and notable regional differences. ③ Economic effect consistently served as the primary driver of emission growth， while the intensity effect shifted from positive to negative and significantly contributed to emission reduction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Structural and population effects had a relatively limited impact. These findings indicate that livestock carbon emissions in China exhibit significant regional disparities， emerging technological mitigation effects， and a strong influence of economic growth.