[Spatio-temporal Coupling and Driving Mechanisms of Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction and High-quality Development of Agricultural Economy].
摘要
The coordinated development of carbon emission reduction and high-quality development of agricultural economy is essential for advancing the low-carbon transformation in agriculture. Based on panel data for 229 Chinese cities from 2012 to 2022， this study systematically analyzed the spatio-temporal coupling and driving mechanisms of agricultural carbon emission reduction and high-quality development of agricultural economy in China. Research methods included modification of the coupling coordination degree model， Dagum Gini decomposition， and quadratic assignment procedure （QAP） method. The results show that： ① The level of coupling coordination steadily increased nationally and within eight economic areas， exhibiting a staged evolution from near-maladjustment types to reluctant coordination types and then primary coordination types. However， the system remains in a transitional phase. ② In terms of spatial correlation pattern， the coupling coordination degree has gradually changed from a polarization effect to a diffusion effect， evolving from agglomeration to relative equilibrium. A spatial pattern emerged that was higher in the east than in the west and higher in the north than in the south， and central economic areas in transition emerged. In addition， while spatial disparities have narrowed nationally， both intra-regional and inter-regional gaps remained significant across eight economic areas， with the latter contributing more prominently. ③ Disparities in coupling coordination were primarily driven by endogenous differences in high-quality development of the agricultural economy. Additionally， external environmental variations also compounded these disparities， with spatial differentiation amplified by economic development， technological innovation， and resource utilization efficiency， whereas it was alleviated by industrial structure and human capital. Finally， based on these findings， policy recommendations focus on implementing region-specific policies， de