Risk Assessment of Life Loss Caused by Dam Breach Based on AHP-BN Method
摘要
The accuracy and praclicability of life loss assessment can not be realized synergistically due to many factors affecting the life loss of dam break and relatively few historical statistics.A model suitable for the evaluation og life loss of dam brach is prosposd. Eight indexes,i.e.,severity of dam break flood,alarm time,occurrence time of dam break,risk population,understanding degree of dam break,proportion of young and middle-aged people,building quality and rescue capacity,are selected to build a dam break lif loss index system.The index grade is divided according to the relevant standards and criteria.AHP-BN method is used to comprehensively consider the influence of weight and probability,calculate the risk value of life loss,and build a dam break life loss assessment model.The application of the model to an example shows that risk values of life loss of the three dams are ranked in the model to an example shows that the risk values of life loss of the three dams are ranked in the order of Lijiazui Reservoir (0.626),Dongkoumiao Reservoir (0.594) and Shijiagou Reservoir (0.522).The evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation,which verifies the validity and practical value in engineering of this model.