[Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Ecological Security in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on "Risk-Health-Service"].
摘要
Scientific identification of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of ecological security in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River can provide theoretical references for the construction of regional ecological security barriers. Based on the "risk-health-service" framework， the TOSIS method and the geographical detector were used to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of ecological security in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2007 to 2023. The LSTM model was employed to explore future trends and propose improvement paths. The results show that： ①The ecological security level in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River increased from 0.371 in 2007 to 0.521 in 2023， with an average annual growth rate of 2.38%. There were significant spatial differences in the ecological security level， with Jiangxi Province having a significantly higher grade than Hubei Province and Hunan Province. ② The influencing factors of ecological security in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River have changed from per capita built-up area to energy consumption per unit GDP. The interaction between urbanization rate and forest coverage rate was the most significant. ③ From 2024 to 2035， the ecological security level in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River will show a trend of "first declining and then rising，" reaching 0.643 by 2035. Among them， Jiangxi Province had the fastest growth rate， Hubei Province had fluctuating changes， and Hunan Province had a relatively slow growth rate. ④ Multiple paths such as low-carbon economic development， ecological restoration， conservation tillage， and ecological collaborative governance should be adopted to jointly improve the regional ecological security level. The study proposed a new "risk-health-service" framework， which can provide an analytical perspective and theoretical support for the optimization of ecological security patterns.