Projection of climate change impacts on ecological flow in the Yellow River basin
摘要
Climate change and human activities has severely changed streamflow and eco-flow in the Yellow River basin. It is of great significance for the long-term management and planning of water resources to analyze whether future climate change will alleviate the impacts of human activities on the river. Here, daily runoff was simulated using hydrological model which was driven by the dataset of 13 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) after correction. Then, both annual and seasonal variation of eco-flow at Huayuankou station from 2026 to 2100 were estimated based on the method of flow duration curve under scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The results suggest that bias was reduced obviously after correction, human activities severely affected eco-flow at the Huayuankou station during 1986-2010, the increasing trends of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation will be significant from 2026 to 2100 with the smallest rate under SSP1-2.6 but the largest rate under SSP5-8.5, and climate change will alleviate the negative impacts of human activities on eco-flow in the Yellow River Basin to some extent, with the most under scenario SSP5-8.5, and the most in winter but the least in summer and autumn.