[Evolution Trend and Key Influencing Factors of Rural Energy Carbon Emissions in China].
摘要
It is of great significance to clarify the evolution trend and key influencing factors of China's rural energy carbon emissions in order to promote the green development of agriculture and rural areas and to realize the goal of "double carbon" on schedule. On the basis of clarifying the current situation of rural energy carbon emission in China and 30 provinces， this study focused on analyzing the evolution trend of rural energy carbon emission and key influencing factors by using the kernel density estimation method and the random forest model. The study showed that： ① China's total rural energy carbon emission was on an upward trend from 2005 to 2022， and their evolution could be broadly categorized into three phases： "fluctuating increase， relatively stable， and continuous increase，" and the carbon intensity increased by more than 160% during the study period. In terms of provinces， the total amount of rural energy carbon emission was greatest in Guangdong， with Shanghai showing the least， and the intensity was greatest in Tianjin， with Guangxi showing the lowest. ② During the investigation period， rural energy carbon emission intensity increased significantly in both the country and the southern and northern regions， and the distribution of provinces in the low-value region decreased significantly. The rural energy carbon emission intensity in both the country and the northern regions still showed some polarization at the end of the investigation period. ③Rural energy carbon emission was influenced by factors at the economic， social， and governmental levels. Among the factors at the economic level， the structure of agricultural industry had an inverted U-shaped effect on rural energy and carbon emissions. Among the factors at the social level， the aging of the rural population， the degree of mechanization of agriculture， and the increase in the level of rural human capital all led to an increase in rural energy and carbon emissions， while the increase in the lev