Trend Analysis and Forecasting Study on the Changing Disease Burden of Rheumatoid Arthritis in China, 1990-2021
摘要
Background Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a common chronic autoimmune disease, the treatment and care of which requires long-term investment, including drug therapy, surgical treatment and rehabilitation, etc., which imposes heavy economic and social burdens on the patient's family and the society, and an analysis of the trend of change in the burden of disease and the prediction of the burden of disease can provide references for the formulation of relevant prevention and treatment strategies. Objective To understand the changes in the burden of disease of RA in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of RA in China from 2022 to 2042. Methods Burden of disease indicators such as DALYs, incidence and prevalence of RA from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) were extracted for the years 1990-2021, and the rate of change and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated using SPSS 27.0, respectively. The autoregressive sliding average model (ARIMA) was used to project the incidence, prevalence and DALYs rates for 2022-2042. Results In 2021, the incidence, prevalence and DALYs rate of RA in China were 17.38/100 000, 334.25/100 000 and 58.61/100 000, respectively, which were 59.89%, 92.61% and 71.07% higher than those in 1990, and the incidence, prevalence and DALYs rate of RA in China showed an increasing trend between 1990-2021, with an EAPC 1.61%, 2.33% and 2.02%, respectively (P<0.05). The rates of incidence, prevalence, and DALYs in women were 22.55/100 000, 460.19/100 000, and 78.25/100 000, which in men were 12.45/100 000, 214.09/100 000, and 39.87/100 000 in 2021. In 2021, China's RA incidence reached its highest in the age group of 75-79 years (34.37/100 000), the prevalence in the 80 years old and above reached the highest (836.13/100 000), and the rate of DALYs was highest in the age group of 80 years old and above (223.81/100 000). The results of