Trends in Cervical Cancer Burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and Prediction for 2022 to 2035
摘要
Background Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide, causing a huge burden of disease in countries around the world, and is currently an important public health problem facing the world, especially in developing countries. Objective To examine the trends in cervical cancer burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and to project the burden from 2022 to 2035, providing a scientific basis for formulating and adjusting prevention and control strategies. Methods Utilizing data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we analyzed the temporal trends in cervical cancer age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate in China between 1990 and 2021 using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). These trends were compared with those in developed countries such as the United Kingdom. Additionally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict cervical cancer burden in China from 2022 to 2035. Results The ASIR of cervical cancer in China increased from 11.80 per 100 000 in 1990 to 13.37 per 100 000 in 2021 (EAPC=0.88, 95%CI=0.70-1.07). The ASMR decreased from 6.98 per 100 000 in 1990 to 4.64 per 100 000 in 2021 (EAPC=-1.05, 95%CI=-1.20 to -0.89), and the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased from 228.2 per 100 000 in 1990 to 149.8 per 100 000 in 2021 (EAPC=-1.07, 95%CI=-1.22 to -0.92). Between 1990 and 2021, the proportion of cervical cancer cases in women aged 35 and older increased from 86.41% to 92.12%, while the proportion of DALYs in this group rose from 88.48% to 95.07%. Furthermore, the proportion of deaths in women aged 40 and older increased from 86.42% in 1990 to 95.54% in 2021. A notable upward trend in cervical cancer incidence was observed in women aged 25-54, with the most pronounced increase in the 45-49 age group (EAPC=1.49, 95%CI=1.20-1.78). Among women under 60, the 45-49 age group showed the smallest decline i