Photovoltaic Power Prediction with Optimized Transformer Integrating Pyramid Attention Module and Temporal Convolutional Network
摘要
Accurate photovoltaic power prediction is crucial for enhancing grid stability and improving energy utilization efficiency. To address the limitations of existing methods, which struggle to simultaneously consider both long-term dependencies and short-term variation patterns of photovoltaic power, this study proposes a novel photovoltaic power prediction method named Solarformer. This method integrates a Pyramid Attention Module (PAM) with a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) to optimize the Transformer architecture. First, multiple feature selection mechanisms are employed to screen the input features, to enhance the model′s ability to characterize photovoltaic data features. Second, a coarse-grained construction module and PAM are utilized to optimize the Transformer encoder, capturing the long-term temporal dependency features of photovoltaic power at multiple scales. Third, a constraint mechanism based on the sunrise-sunset effect of photovoltaic power and the TCN are employed to optimize the Transformer decoder, strengthening the model′s ability to capture short-term variation features of photovoltaic power and better model its short-term variation patterns. Experimental results on the Sanyo dataset from Australia demonstrate that Solarformer can effectively improve photovoltaic power forecasting accuracy. Compared with the DLinear model, it reduces the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) by approximately 7.45%, 6.99%, and 14.10%, respectively.