[Evolution in Land-habitat Quality in Black Soil Area of Northeast China and Multi-scenario Forecasting: The Study of Heilongjiang Province].
摘要
As the bearing space of the natural and social environment, habitat land quality is the foundation and guarantee for human survival and development. The spatiotemporal evolution trend of land use and regional habitat quality in the black soil area was analyzed to provide a reference for the protection of regional ecological environments and the sustainable and efficient use of land resources. Based on the land use data of 2000, 2010, and 2020, the spatial distribution and habitat quality of land use in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed using the InVEST model. Based on the land use data in 2020, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use status and habitat quality index in 2030, 2040, and 2050 under the scenarios of natural development, urban development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the area of cultivated land, forest land, grassland, wetland, and bare land were gradually decreasing, and the area of water and artificial surface were expanding. ② From 2030 to 2050, the areas of forest land, grassland, water area, and artificial surface under the ecological protection scenario were gradually increasing, while the area of cultivated land showed a decreasing trend. Under the other three scenarios, the areas of cultivated land, water area, and artificial surface increased in a fluctuating manner, and the areas of forest land and grassland were gradually decreasing. ③ From 2000 to 2020, the habitat quality index rose from 0.555 to 0.560 and then dropped to 0.543, showing the characteristics that the habitat quality was high in the northwest and southeast and low in the southwest and northeast. ④ From 2030 to 2050, the habitat quality under the ecological protection scenario was significantly improved, and the habitat quality under the natural development, urban development, and cultivated land protection scenarios was relatively low, with similar spatial distribution characteristics. Thus, thi