[Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Values in the Mawei River Basin， Guizhou： Identification of Curve Characteristics of Driving Factors and Assessment of Their Impact Effects].
摘要
As a crucial water conservation area in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River， the Mawei River Basin in Guizhou holds a significant position in maintaining the ecological balance and sustainable development of the upper reaches of the river. Thus， it is of great importance to explore the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of ecosystem service value （ESV） and the driving mechanisms in the Mawei River Basin and to reveal the degree of influence and the complex relationships of different categories of driving factors on various ecosystem services to promote the effective allocation of resources and the maximization of ecological benefits in the Mawei River Basin and upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Based on land-use type data of the Mawei River Basin from 2000 to 2020， we assessed its ESV using the equivalent factor method and the spatial autocorrelation model， coupled the random forest （RF） model with the Shapley additive explanations （SHAP） method to reveal the dominant factors of ESV drivers and the nonlinear influence characteristics and their influence effects， and explored the interaction paths of the drivers using the partial least squares （PLS） method. The study produced several interesting results： ① The ESV of the watershed exhibits a change trend of decreasing initially and then increasing， with a total decrease of 295 million yuan. Among the services， the regulation service makes the greatest contribution rate to the ESV of the watershed， accounting for 67.31% of the total in 2020， and the ESV presents a spatial distribution pattern of being high in the east and west and low in the north， south， and central parts of the watershed， which is dominated by higher-value area and medium-value area. ② Socioeconomic factors are the dominant factors driving the change of ESV， with a contribution of 61.12%. There is an obvious nonlinear relationship between ESV and each single factor. ESV is significantly negatively correlated with human activit