国家自然科学基金助力我国地球系统模式高质量发展
摘要
<p indent="0mm">Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for quantitatively depicting and predicting the evolution of various components and their interactions of the Earth system, including integrating human activities with the natural environment. These models seek to advance novel theories using leading-edge technologies. As the cornerstone of Earth Science, ESMs offer an indispensable, integrated platform and research tool that enhances the discipline, cultivating a profound comprehension and nuanced strategies to address global environmental challenges. To bolster ESMs’ development in China, this contribution delves into a brief review of the historical development of ESMs. Finally, we discuss various funding initiatives by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) dedicated to ESMs and conclude with pertinent policy suggestions. ESMs have experienced three pivotal phases. The first phase, spanning the 1940s to the 1950s, was marked by groundbreaking work in atmospheric modeling and the advent of numerical weather prediction. The second phase, from the 1970s to 1990s, is known as the physical climate system model stage, with significant advancements in model components of the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere. Since the millennium, ESMs have reached the third phase—the Earth System Model stage, which is characterized by the integration of biogeochemical cycles such as the carbon cycle, the refinement of spatial resolution to a global kilometer-scale and the incorporation of new elements like the near-space and lithosphere. Throughout all three stages, the success of ESMs has been contingent upon efficient and coordinated innovation. The emerging development trends of ESMs are further highlighted. Firstly, the increasing integration of human and social processes drives ESMs to better represent the dynamic interplay between the natural environment and human civilization. Secondly, as space exploration technologies continue to advance, pl