[Construction of a predictive model of death for sepsis-associated acute kidney injury].
摘要
OBJECTIVE: To establish a predictive model nomogram for 30-day death in patients with sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) by using the data from the large international database, the Electronic Intensive Care Unit-Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD), and to validate its predictive performance. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the eICU-CRD. Data of SA-AKI patients were screened from the eICU-CRD database, including demographic characteristics, medical history, SA-AKI type, Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO)-AKI staging, severity of illness scores, vital signs, laboratory indicators, and treatment measures; with admission time as the observation start point, death as the outcome event, and a follow-up time of 30 days. Relevant variables of patients with different 30-day prognoses were compared. Univariate Logistic regression analysis and multivariate Logistic regression forward likelihood ratio analysis were used to screen for risk factors associated with 30-day death in SA-AKI patients, and a predictive model nomogram was constructed. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curve, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to validate the predictive performance of the model. RESULTS: = 6.393, df = 8, P = 0.603 > 0.05, suggesting that the model could fit the observed data well. The quality of model fitting was judged by the accuracy of model prediction. The results showed that the prediction accuracy rate of the model was 95.3%, and the overall prediction accuracy rate of the model was 81.6%, indicating good model fitting. CONCLUSIONS: A predictive model for 30-day death in SA-AKI patients based on risk factors can be successfully constructed, and the model has high accuracy, sensitivity, reliability, and certain specificity, which can help to early identify high-risk patients for death and adopt more proactive treatment strategies.