融合历史降雨下斜坡稳定性观测信息的可靠度分析
摘要
Failure mechanism and reliability analysis of rainfall-induced slopes generally ignore the effects of field observation information, such as the observation that the slope keeps stable in natural conditions or after a historical rainfall event.In this paper, with an infinite slope model as an example, the BUS (Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation) method is adopted for the probabilistic back analysis of spatially variable hydraulic and shear strength parameters based on the field observation that the slope survived from a previous extreme rainfall event.The probabilities of slope failure under different rainfall durations are evaluated within the framework of Monte-Carlo simulation.The influence of ignoring/incorporating the field observation on the estimate of probability of slope failure is also investigated.The results indicate that the possibility of slope failing along the weak zones caused by the spatial variability of soil parameters can be effectively excluded through the probabilistic back analysis incorporating the field observation.Based on this, more realistic probability of slope failure induced by the rainfall can be produced.If the field observation that the slope survived from a previous extreme rainfall event is ignored, the probability of slope failure will be 基金项目：