A Marxian Optimal Growth Model of China : 1981-2005
摘要
The Communist leadership that came to power in 1949 has launched China on the path of modern economic growth within a socialist framework.After the heavy start period of 30 years for state-lead capital accumulation which is called state-capitalism, 1) the newborn country has stepped into a new era of economic development by claiming to enact the state policy of reform and opening-up in the year of 1978.This year is generally regarded as another new milestone of the history in China's economic growth, because from that time China has progressed to the era of private-capitalism ( or market-capitalism ), and achieved and maintained amazingly high GDP growth rate in these 30 years, which is seen as a typical successful case and even considered by someone that this miracle of high growth will continue forever.However, from the Marxian understanding, a capitalist era is a long period for accumulating enough capital in order to support consumption at maximum level one day.Therefore, when its ultimate value is reached, the capital labor ratio may reach ultimate equilibrium value, and GDP growth rate will also slump to a low level, as is happening in some developed countries right now.Therefore, historically and materialistically speaking, the downturn of China's economic growth pace is inevitable, and zero-growth will happen in the future, which is exactly the ultimate goal of high economic growth China is experiencing now.The objective of this paper is to identify how long we will experience capitalist era, and how much capital we have to accumulate to meet the level required by the next era of post-capitalism, which is based on "Marxian Optimal Growth Model".The "Marxian Optimal Growth Model" adopted in this report is formulated by Yamashita & Ohnishi (2002) and extended by Kanae (2008), and is characterized that it simplifies means of production into capital and labor.For the simulation of China's economic growth route based on this model, the capital stock and labor for