结合加权马尔可夫链与GM(1,1)模型的两阶段小水电群发电能力预测方法
摘要
Power generation is difficult to transfer to other places in rich small hydropower areas, especially in flood seasons. What's more, the inaccurate predicted capacity of small hydropower generation aggravates this problem. Therefore, in order to improve the reliability of generation forecast, this paper presents a new method based on the combination with weighted Markov chain and Grey forecasting model. Firstly, select the referred big hydropower plant through analysing the relationship between small and big hydropower plants. Then dynamic weighted Markov chain is employed to obtain the season index of small hydropower given the nature inflow of the selected big hydropower plant. And the forecast of small hydropower generation is made with improved Grey forecasting model adopting the season index. The proposed method is applied to generation forecast in Yangbi Town, in Dali City, Yunnan Province. The performance of this method in the case study can meet the demand of practical project and show its value in small hydropower generation forecast.