对共同年龄效应模型的研究及中国应用
摘要
共同年龄效应模型是一种在多个人口数据中提取所有数据对象所共有的共同年龄效应的多人口死亡率模型。我们首次运用共同年龄效应模型研究中国男女性死亡率。基于中国男女性死亡率数据，分别使用共同年龄效应模型的极大似然估计和Lee-Carter模型的最小二乘估计对数据进行了处理，结果表明共同年龄效应模型在处理中国男女性死亡率数据时，拟合和预测效果都很好。 The common age effect model is a multi-population mortality model that extracts the common age effect shared by all data objects from multiple population data. For the first time, we use the common age effect model to study the mortality of men and women in China. Based on the Chinese male and female mortality data, the maximum likelihood estimation of the Common Age Effect model and the least square estimation of the Lee-Carter model were used to process the data. The results show that while the common age effect model processes the Chinese male and female mortality data, the effects of fitting and prediction are pretty well.