年龄结构、接触模式和接种对手足口病传播机制的影响
摘要
In order to further reveal the transmission mechanism and optimize the immune strategy of the hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD), a new HFMD transmission model was proposed under the effects of age structure, contact patterns and vaccination. The next generation matrix was used to calculate the basic reproduction number, and the theory of stability and dynamics was used to prove the existence and global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Finally numerical simulation was conducted to explore the effects of model parameters. It is found that age structure, contact matrices and vaccination have significant influence on the transmission, and the heterogeneity of age structure may worsen the infection, but quarantining patients and improving vaccination coverage vaccination rates can effectively help to control the disease. The results provide a scientific reference for the prevention and control of HFMD transmission.