[Predictive value of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in the progression of sepsis to chronic critical illness in elderly patients].
摘要
OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictive value of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in the progression of sepsis to chronic critical illness (CCI) in elderly patients. METHODS: Patients with sepsis who were hospitalized more than 24 hours and older than 60 years old admitted to the department of medical intensive care unit (MICU) of General Hospital of Southern Theatre Command from August 2019 to April 2021 were enrolled. The neutrophil count (NEU), lymphocyte count (LYM) and NLR of peripheral blood cells were recorded on the 1st, 4th and 7th day after admission. Patients were divided into the CCI group and the non-CCI group according to whether they progressed to CCI, and differences between the two groups were compared. The CCI was defined as a MICU length of stay (LOS) ≥ 14 days and persistent organ dysfunction [sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score ≥ 2]. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the risk factors for predicting CCI. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was plotted for evaluating the predictive value of NLR in the progression of sepsis to CCI in elderly patients. RESULTS: values were 0.798, 4.478, 5.783, respectively, all P > 0.05). (3) Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that NLR on day 7 was an independent risk factor for sepsis progression to CCI [odds ratio (OR) = 1.155, P = 0.005]. (4) ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of NLR predicting the sepsis progression to CCI on day 7 was 0.775, and the 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.670-0.860, P < 0.01; when the cut-off value was 9.25, the sensitivity was 69.57% and the specificity was 80.56%. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic monitoring of NLR is helpful to determine the progress of sepsis in elderly patients, NLR on day 7 has a certain predictive value for the occurrence of CCI.