[Diffusion, population dynamics and potential distribution of <i>Armigeres subalbatus</i>].
摘要
OBJECTIVE: and analyze its potential geographic distribution in China. METHODS: The trend analysis of diffusion and population dynamics were carried out based on three aspects including literature reports, information of museum specimens and new collection records from our field survey. To compare the potential geographic distribution, two ecological niche models were constructed by Maxent software based on the geographic presence occurrence data and 20 environmental variables. The final models were evaluated with the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC). The analyses of variable contributions were confirmed by using the Jackknife method. RESULTS: . CONCLUSIONS: distribution gradually spreads northward, and climate warming is probably the main reason for the diffusion. It could affect the local mosquito species composition and increase the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission.