Strategy-Based Forecasting Model for Civil Airlines
摘要
Airlines usually pay more attention to maintenance cost for efficiency improvement and consumption reduction. However, airlines, especially the domestic airlines, can hardly predict the cost exactly due to the uncertainty and complexity until now. In practice, the cost is calculated by collecting and calculating the invoices afterwards. To settle the problem, a maintenance cost forecasting model is proposed in this paper. Maintenance activities are classified into scheduled maintenance and unscheduled maintenance. Scheduled maintenance is periodic, in which the required materials and man-power hours can be obtained properly in advance. Nevertheless, it is impossible to acquire the necessary information of unscheduled maintenance. According to the specific characteristics of each, Activity-Based Costing (ABC) and Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) are introduced to attack the building of forecasting models, respectively. Then practical cases, the 3C check of MD-90 and the engine shop visit are adopted to verify the cost forecasting models proposed. The results show that the models not only can predict the actual maintenance cost successfully, but also are helpful to drawing up the maintenance program and managing the maintenance funds efficiently.