市场风险、契约关系与农户空间溢出效应——基于人感染禽流感(H7N9)风险视角
摘要
Based on the first-hand two-round survey of 77 poultry farmers in Gaoyou, a county-level city, this paper uses spatial econometric models to empirically analyze the impact of company+farmers contractual relationship on the behavior of poultry farmers under the continued shocks of avian influenza risks. Then it discusses the spatial spillovers of poultry farmers from the perspective of uncertainty resulting from avian influenza risks. It shows that compared with independent poultry farmers, company+farmers contractual relationships have a significant positive impact on breeding scale. When market risks strengthen, the spatial spillovers between poultry farmers are more apparent. As the author knows, that this paper makes the first attempt to use farmers data to do the research of spatial effects of avian influenza, is a new attempt of new institutional economics, and the results have important policy implications for sustainable development of the Chinese poultry industry.