[Time-series analysis on relationship between air pollution and mortality from circulatory system diseases among registered residents in Chaoyang district of Beijing].
摘要
OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate relationship between daily concentration of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2) and daily mortality due to circulatory system diseases in Chaoyang district, Beijing. METHODS: The time-series data of daily mortality from circulatory system diseases of registered residents in Chaoyang were obtained from Chaoyang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The daily concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), and particulate matter (PM(10)) were collected from Beijing Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center. And the routine monitoring meteorological data were collected from Beijing Meteorological Bureau, including daily mean temperature and daily mean relative humidity. The time-series analysis was then conducted to determine the relationship of mortality from circulatory system diseases with daily concentrations of SO(2), NO(2) and PM(10) by using Poisson regression with generalized additive model (GAM). RESULTS: During January 2004 to September 2008, the cumulative death number from circulatory system diseases of registered residents in Chaoyang district of Beijing was 19 241, the daily average concentration of SO(2), NO(2), PM(10) was 48.7, 63.9, 146.1 µg/m(3), respectively. The single pollutant model showed an increase of daily concentration of PM(10), SO(2) and NO(2) by 10 µg/m(3) will augment the mortality from circulatory system diseases by 0.20% (95%CI: 0.01% - 0.39%), 0.36% (95%CI: -0.13% - 0.85%) and 0.30% (95%CI: -0.34% - 0.94%), respectively. In the multiple air pollutants models, combinatorial effects of PM(10) and SO(2) still positively correlated with increased mortality from circulatory system diseases (P < 0.05), whereas changes of the concentration of NO(2) had no significant effect on mortality from circulatory system diseases (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Our findings in this study elucidated that changes of the concentration of PM(10) and SO(2) had a positive correlation with daily mortality fro