Aggregation of Regional Economic Time Series with Different Spatial Correlation Structures. 具有不同空间相关结构的区域经济时间序列集成
摘要
In this article, we compare the relative efficiency of different forecasting methods of space-time series when variables are spatially and temporally correlated. We consider two cases: (1) univariate forecasting (i.e., a space-time series aggregated into a single time series) and (2) the more general instance of multivariate forecasting (i.e., a space-time series aggregated into a coarser spatial partition). We extend the results in the literature by including the consideration of larger datasets and the treatment of edge effects and of negative spatial correlation. We first introduce a statistical framework based on the space-time autoregressive class of random field models, which constitutes the basis of our simulation study, and we present the various alternative forecasting methods considered in the simulation. We then present the results of a Monte Carlo study related to univariate forecasting. In order to allow a comparison with the findings of Giacomini and Granger (2004), we consider the same forecasting strategies and the same combinations of the parameter values used there, but with a larger parametric set. Finally, we extend our analysis to the case of multivariate forecasting. The outcomes obtained provide operational suggestions about how to choose between alternative forecasting methods in empirical circumstances.