第24太阳周将是一个低太阳周？
摘要
A simple and applicable method is proposed for comparing the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers. Considering the calculating precision for the national sunspot numbers and the time series characteristics of the existing measured data, the range of the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers from January to April in 2009 is estimated according to the measured data and the sunspot numbers comparison equations deducted in this paper. That the solar cycle 24 should start in December 2008 is given. Then the ascending length and the maximum sunspot number are predicted, using the statistical formulae and the conceptions of similar cycle and similar phase which are developed in our previous work. The peak for solar cycle 24 will be in 60－80, which will appear in the period from September 2013 to May 2014 and seems to be much lower than 120.8, the peak of solar cycle 23.