The prospects of LNG export and its limitations
摘要
The world-wide reserve-production ratio for natural gas is 54 yr (based on 1975 data) as compared with 37 yr for oil; however, the location of major sources of gas in relation to the consuming centers is such that the majority of gas export projects which are possible by pipeline (192,300 million cu m/yr) are either in operation, under construction, or proposed. Accordingly, the future of the international gas trade depends on LNG projects under construction or proposed aggregating 168,300 million cu m/hr. The cost of liquefying gas is 1.5-2.0 times the cost of refining crude oil in a fuel-type refinery, the energy consumed is double that for refining, and transport costs are 6-8 times higher for LNG than for crude oil. From Iran LNG costs CIF Western Europe or Japan are in the range of $2.65-$2.90/million Btu, and for the U.S. east coast $3.00 to $3.25/million Btu; however, these LNG costs are competitive with long-distance pipeline gas or with synfuels. Only modest cost reductions in LNG appear possible for new projects. A large part of the LNG cost is financial, and low interest rate loans could cut the LNG cost more than any other conceivable measure.