臺灣的社會救助動態：趨勢、型態與成因
摘要
Base on the registry data for beneficiaries from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan, this study uses statistical techniques such as Life Table, Bane & Elwood's distribution formula of poverty dynamics, and Cox Regression to reveal the trend, type and patterns of poverty dynamics in Taiwan. We find that the median duration of poverty spell is 4.73 years, and the average probability of exiting poverty is 0.1275. Even though the short-term poor represent the largest portion of the poor population, it is the long-term poor who have contributed the most significant part of the overall person-years. The poor population in Taiwan also exhibits distinctive features: lower exit rate and higher reentry rate, and these features correspond to the fact that the poor population constitutes a highly homogeneous and stable social-economic status group. In terms of the probability of exiting poverty, those who are female, aged 0 to 4 years, and reside in highly urbanized counties are the least likely ones to succeed in exiting poverty. In contrast, those who live in agricultural counties, aged 15-29 years, are the most likely to exit poverty. Regarding the recurrent poor, the longer their previous duration of poverty spell is, the less likely they will exit poverty.